Sunday, January 18, 2009

Manchester United

It is noteworthy to me that Manchester United ended the weekend at the top of the Barclays premiership table. They've been trailing league leaders Liverpool for the first half of the season but a solid run through the Boxing day and New Year period combined with faltering play by Liverpool and Chelsea in recent weeks has jettisoned MY team to the top of the table... with a game in hand!
(I really wanted to post THIS picture of Ronaldo)

I'm a *Man Utd* fan and always have been. Well, I've been a fan since 1982 when, while watching the World Cup that summer I developed a pre-teen crush on the then England and Manchester United captain, Bryan Robson. Incidentally, Bryan Robson also wore the famed #7 Man Utd shirt that has been worn by David Beckham and which currently adorns the torso of footballer of the year, Cristiano Ronaldo.

Funnily enough, it wasn't cool to be a Man Utd fan in the 1980s. They were a Premiership team (called Division 1 back then) but they hadn't won the division title for 20 years. It wasn't until 1985 that they even had any Cup success, beating Everton 1-0 to win the F.A. Cup. I recognize that since I hail from Sheffield, most would question my loyalty to a team based on the other side of the Pennines (300 mile ridgeline in the north of England that separates Yorkshire from Lancashire) but as you can see, there's history to my fandom. Nowadays, Manchester United is probably the *winningest* football team in the world with the most global fan base. No one would question that its players of the last 10 years are among the most famous... I mean, David Beckham and his clothes-horse wife, Victoria, regularly appear in the US gossip magazines, People and US Weekly... hilarious for a country that doesn't even know what football is... they can't even get the name right!

Friday, January 16, 2009

Life Rhymes...



I was listening to the California Report on KQED in the car the other day and Michael Krazny's guest quoted Mark Twain: "History doesn't repeat itself, at best it sometimes rhymes." The quote struck a chord.

This week has been a particularly stressful one for me. A combination of the economic situation and a business unit reorganization generated layoffs of around 10% at my firm. I had been somewhat worried about the *safety* of my own position but I can thankfully report that I am still employed. Unfortunately, the positions of both my direct manager and her manager (my skip-level manager) were *eliminated* (euphemisms abound in these situations!).

The new organizational structure is much flatter and my new manager is a good friend. I'm happy for him because it's a great new role for him and I'm even happier for myself as I now have a cleaner reporting structure, more responsibility and the most triathlon-friendly manager I will ever have in my career! There'll be no need to explain why I need to miss the industry conference in Miami in October since I have some small race I'd like to do in Hawaii. He was calling and texting my coach all day long when I raced IMAZ and I'm sure he'll do the same for Hawaii... that's of course if he doesn't come and watch for himself!

This was not my first *downsizing process* at a financial institution but I feel very lucky that my position has never been *eliminated*... I've seen dear friends lose their jobs but on this occasion and in previous situations, I have been positively impacted. With the increased responsibilities, I'll be feeling a *little over my skis" for a while but I'll grow a lot in the process.



The Mark Twain quote felt pertinent as I wrestled with my new career reality, anxious about the new office world order, nervous about my bigger role and sad about the exited colleagues. I've been there before. The situation is different so "history has not repeated" but I've dealt with similar issues. Some physical and emotional rhythms are repeated... The echoes and resonances of those past experiences will help me handle the new situation with greater confidence than I might otherwise.

Friday, January 09, 2009

Simpson's Paradox



I know that I am a maths (Brit) dork, given a past posting about *emailing equations* as well as a fascination with running numbers for everything I do... I remember all race times, splits, positions, wattages, min/mile paces etc...

I am actually more than a math dork, I am a statistics dork! Statistics was my inital major in college even though I eventually graduated with a double major in languages and only a minor in math and statistics! I suppose I was in denial in college but I soon put that straight after college joining a *white-shoe*, New York investment bank trading fixed income... now I work for an investment management firms that prides itself on the number of geeky quant jocks it employs :)

I delight in taking a statistical approach to things and recently I came across a work problem which reminded me of the *Yule-Simpson effect*, a.k.a. Simpson's Paradox. What is it, you ask? It is a statistical paradox, wherein, individual results are reversed when the results are combined into a group... simple, d'oh! That's probably not too clear, so let me try an *athletic* example... One of my favorite books, Michael Lewis' Moneyball, demonstrated the richness of statistics available in the world of baseball. Let's review some batting averages:

1995 1996 Combined
Derek Jeter 12/48 .250 183/582 .314 195/630 .310
David Justice 104/411 .253 45/140 .321 149/551 .270

In the example above, Justice had the higher batting average in both the '95 and '96 seasons (.253 and .321 respectively), but when you combine the two seasons, Jeter comes out on top (.310)!!! (gratuitous picture of Derek Jeter below)


How the heck does Jeter have the higher 2 season average?

Looking more closely at the results, this phenomenon occurs when there are large differences in the number of at-bats between seasons. I like to think of it as a scale issue, it's not just how well you do it, it's how often you do it!

So why does this Paradox suddenly capture my attention? After I won my age-group at Ironman Arizona last November, I bumped into an acquaintance who congratulated me on winning my age-group at the race and getting a *Kona slot*. She (intentionally?) weakened her congratulatory feedback by adding that it looked to be an *easy age-group*. WTF? What does that mean? I took it to assume that my age-group wasn't the fastest. Indeed, if you take away the forced groupings, the results might be different. She was right... I wouldn't have won any of the younger age-groups... but hey, I'm not younger so I won by the rules of the race! My race might have been different had I reacted in a more competitive fashion and picked up the pace when I was passed by a 28 year old versus a 38 year old? But I was racing for an age group placing and Kona slot, so I was officially racing against the 38 year old and not the 28 year old...

USA Triathlon rankings involve the same paradox. I could finish ahead of another age-grouper every time we compete against one another, but if that athlete races more or enters *easier* races, she may well have a higher ranking overall at the end of the season.

So what? I think reflecting on the above has been a healthy reminder that numbers, be they rankings, wattages, bpm are just that, numbers. They need a context, a comparison and a reference point to make them come alive... and even then we need to proceed cautiously...

Thursday, January 08, 2009

Coulda, Shoulda, Woulda...

I keep thinking of things I would like to write about... if only I had the time... when I change my full-time career from financier to writer? I think I'll keep my day job and continue to pay the rent/bills!

Human interaction - the small stuff... basically the concept of feeling better about yourself and gaining positive vibes from others by being upbeat, pleasant, making smalltalk... at the grocery store, to the valet guys, at the water cooler... Maybe it's just me that gets a buzz from this, but a positive human interaction, however mundane, lifts my spirits.

Give me back my Gym! - the overwhelming increase in people working out at the gym in January... a direct result of lofty New Year's resolutions which will fade by the 3rd week of January... but which annoys the hell out of the *regulars* for those few weeks!

Simpson's Paradox - case-wise superiority but overall inferiority as applied to the Age-group competition in triathlon. Forgive my academic background as a mathematician but this is basically the concept that as an age-grouper, you can consistently win races but still not have great overall rankings... depends which races you do, who shows up etc.

Wednesday, January 07, 2009

Vineman has sold out!


There goes my race plan unless I can use my resources and contacts to finagle an entry? I was looking at the alternatives for another mid-season 70.3 race and unfortunately the Boise Idaho race clashes with Alcatraz... which I cannot possibly miss... A more realistic alternative is the Lake Stevens (Seattle, WA) race which takes place in August. However, that will come right after my BIG week of training in the Sierras... What should I do? Maybe I need a more flexible plan? Ditch the Tahoe training week?

Actually, it was much easier... I used my contacts and got myself off the waitlist already :)

Friday, January 02, 2009

2009 Goals

I don't want to make any New Year resolutions but I have a few goals for 2009, many of which relate to the triathlon racing season... since I already qualified for Hawaii with my *flukey* performance at Arizona, I feel confident and relaxed about training in 2009, although the *success* at Arizona prompts me to think I can achieve even more in 2009 so the goals will seem a little lofty ;) Of course, in true JC-style, the goals will come in the form of a Top Ten List!

10. Swim at least 10k every week (unless it's a work travel week)
9. Do the core program 2x/week
8. Run regularly at the track and include form drills
7. Run sub 1:40 at a half-ironman
6. Take rest and recovery seriously
5. Stop eating peanut butter chocolate malt balls (highly correlated with #1)
4. Cook more... even if it means finding people to cook for ;)
3. Manage my triathlon/travel budget
2. Run a 3:45 marathon at IMH
1. Maintain a race weight of 125lbs (will help with the run goals!)